Nigeria’s election campaign begins with Tinubu facing a reform test

On the quietest days, the 43-year-old sits outside reading the Quran while waiting for buyers. Her business once attracted a steady flow of customers. But as prices have risen, many Nigerians have been forced to cut back on purchases they once considered routine.

“People are interested in buying the things I sell, but they have become really expensive. Once they check their pockets and see that they cannot afford it, they won’t buy it no matter how much they like it, except if they can’t do without it,” Oyedele, a mother of four, said.

A 21-litre bucket that sold for 1,500 naira two years ago now costs about 3,200 naira, she said, more than doubling in price and forcing many customers to delay purchases or buy smaller quantities. Oyedele’s profits have fallen, and the shop that was once fully stocked now carries fewer goods.

“I just keep opening the shop every day, so I wouldn’t shut down totally. The market is not what it used to be,” she said.

Oyedele’s struggle captures the political dilemma facing President Bola Tinubu as Nigeria moves towards the 2027 presidential election: whether voters will judge his reforms by their long-term promises or by the immediate economic pain they have endured.

Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy shortly after taking office in 2023 and introduced foreign-exchange reforms that allowed the naira to trade more freely, arguing that the measures were necessary to strengthen public finances, attract investment, and stabilise Africa’s largest economy.

The reforms won support from investors and economists who had long argued that Nigeria needed to address deep structural problems in its economy. But the benefits of such reforms are typically slower to reach households than the costs they create.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria’s reforms had improved macroeconomic stability, but warned that living conditions remained difficult for many citizens. For many households, the immediate impact has been higher food prices, rising transport costs and declining purchasing power.

“The government has to convince Nigerians that those gains will eventually translate into better lives, and give them a credible reason to wait for that to happen,” Sekinat Ojeniyi, a senior analyst at global risk advisory firm Africa Practice, said.