Iran changed the rules in Hormuz. The Gulf is changing the rules for Iran
At dinner on the 44th floor of the Waldorf Astoria in Doha this week, no missiles crossed the skyline. No warning alerts interrupted the conversation. Traffic moved smoothly below, and the city lights glittered. This is what normal now looks like in Doha, Qatar. The city functions despite reduced energy exports, Iranian attacks, and a war changing how Gulf governments defend themselves.
More than five months into the conflict, the military tempo has slowed. The central dispute now is over who sets the rules in the Gulf.
On Friday, a US official said Iran and Oman could soon reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington said it would lift its blockade of Iranian ports once commercial shipping resumed without impediments. Less than a day later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected Washington’s account. Reopening Hormuz, its spokesman said, depends on the United States accepting Iran’s conditions, not on an agreement with Oman.
Oman has narrowed the dispute to a route through Hormuz. It has not settled who controls the territorial waters.
Washington wants commercial vessels to move through an international waterway without Iranian permission or tolls. Tehran wants a settlement that preserves the leverage it gained by restricting passage. Negotiators have agreed on coordinates for a route through Hormuz, but Iran still seeks to control incoming traffic and impose transit fees, both of which Washington rejects.
The deal also has to work for the companies that move the ships. Owners need a guarantee that their vessels will not be attacked, detained, or stranded in territorial waters. Insurers have to provide coverage. Iran’s demand for transit payments creates another problem: US persons and US-owned or controlled companies cannot pay Iran for safe passage without running afoul of US sanctions. Some war-risk policies can also terminate coverage when vessels pay certain Hormuz transit charges. If a vessel refuses to pay Tehran, it may be at risk. If it pays, its owner may face problems with its insurer or Washington.
Diplomats can reopen Hormuz on paper. Captains have to reopen it at sea.
Iran cannot match the United States militarily, but it has learned to shift the costs of conflict onto others. A restriction in Hormuz affects an insurance contract in London, a purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Qatar.